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Lula & Bolsonaro Tied in News Polls as Brazilian Federal Police Chief Removed

Folks,

​Greetings from the Burgh, where Melk is getting ready to ship out to Rio de Janeiro next Wednesday to cover the presidential election as things are heating up in Brasil.

​We got a special newsletter out on it, but first, we need your help to pay the bills.

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Already, the Lula Administration has denied several visas to Trump operatives who they believed were coming to Brasil to undermine election results. The U.S. media is largely ignoring what’s happening in Brasil.

​This is why Payday must send a veteran labor reporter like me, who is fluent in Portuguese and has over two decades of Brasil experience, to cover it.  

I got a free place to stay with my old host father from my university days, but I'm gonna need to pay my bills and hire a local videographer to help navigate some of the risky situations.

Lula & Bolsonaro Tied in News Polls as Brazilian Federal Police Chief Removed

For months, polling showed Brazilian president Lula leading Flavio Bolsonaro by double digits, but in recent months his commanding lead has diminished. Now, this week, a Quaset poll commissioned by TV Globo and another poll commissioned by Meio/Ideia show that the two candidates are statistically tied.

Polling shows that voters in Brasil are growing concerned about corruption and are quick to blame Lula, whose Workers' Party has ruled Brasil for 18 of the last 24 years.

Now, a new scandal involving the release of text messages between legendary Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who led the investigation that led to Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment, and Banco Master Chief Daniel Vorcaro threatens to hurt Lula.

Bolsonaro Flipping Script on Lula on Banco Master Scandal

Last November, the financial institution Banco Master collapsed amid allegations of massive fraud. The bank was being run like a Ponzi scheme, resulting in the largest financial collapse in Brazilian history, with nearly $8 billion in investors’ funds lost.

Although Banco Master CEO Daniel Vorcaro is a vocal Bolsonaro supporter, the Brazilian media has repeatedly tried to link the scandal to Lula’s Workers’ Party, as Vorcaro cultivated political ties on both sides of the aisle.

In May, the Intercept Brasil released a WhatsApp message from Flávio Bolsonaro to Vorcaro, asking him for more than $26 million to fund a strange English-language biopic named Dark Horse, about his father. In the film, right-wing American actor Jim Caviezel portrays Jair Bolsonaro. Caviezel also played Jesus in the controversial 2004 film The Passion of the Christ.

In the WhatsApp voice message, Flávio Bolsonaro claimed that the project may default on payments to Caviezel and director Cyrus Nowrasteh.

“We’re at a very decisive moment for the film and, as there are a lot of outstanding payments, everyone is tense … Imagine us defaulting on someone like Jim Caviezel, or Cyrus … It would be very bad,” Bolsonaro was heard saying.

​The request was sent on November 15th, shortly after it was leaked that the Brazilian government was nearing a public takeover of Banco Master. Two days later, Vorcaro was arrested as he tried to flee to Malta.

​The $26 million request would have made Dark Horse the most expensive film in Brazilian history, more than double the combined budgets of I’m Still Here, which was nominated for a Best Picture Oscar in 2025, and The Secret Agent, nominated for Best Picture this year.

​The audio was widely played in the media, leading many Brazilians to mock Flávio Bolsonaro’s desperate pleas to Vorcaro. Even Romeu Zema, the longtime right-wing governor of Minas Gerais, called out Bolsonaro for the clip, saying the message was “a slap in the face to decent Brazilians,” as some on the right called on Bolsonaro to drop out of the presidential race.

​But now, Bolsonaro has flipped the script with the recent revelation of private text messages between Corcaro and De Moraes. The text messages reveal that Vorcaro sought the legal advice of the law firm run by some of Moraes’ family members before he was arrested and charged with crimes.

​Scandals involving Moraes, whose efforts to convict Bolsonaro were seen as helping Lula, could hurt the Brazilian president’s re-election chances.

Brazilian Federal Police Head, Lula Ally, Removed by Bolsonaro Justice

This week, Moraes has accused Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonca, a Bolsonaro appointee, of failing to follow proper procedure in his handling of the Banco Master scandal, leaking information to the press on Lula’s political allies while hiding information on Bolsonaro’s allies.

Moraes asked the Brazilian Federal police to investigate Mendonca's violation of federal investigation procedures and for selectively leaking information to the press that would make Lula allies look bad while suppressing information on Bolsonaro allies.

Moraes accused Mendonca of attempting to “steer the production of evidence toward falsely accusing Supreme Court justices of crimes, expressly naming Justices Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, Luiz Fux, Alexandre de Moraes and Nunes Marques, as well as the prosecutor general and the director-general of the Federal Police.”

Now, Mendoca has fought back and got a panel of five Brazilian Supreme Court justices, largely Bolsonaro allies, to issue an injunction temporarily removing Brazilian Federal Police Director-General Andrei Rodrigues, a Lula ally.

On Wednesday, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Flavio Dino, a Lula appointee and former communist Governor of Maranhão, ordered Rodrigues reinstated until the full Brazilian Supreme Court can hear the case against him.

Given how Trump has already signaled doubts about the integrity of Brazilian courts and election systems, the temporary removal of Rodrigues could fuel corporate attacks on Lula and the election system even more.

“Everyone can see that (Dino) isn’t judging a case but defending a cause, which is Lula’s,” Flávio Bolsonaro said in a statement on Wednesday. “It’s clear that it’s to interfere in the elections.”

Lula shot back, saying that a full investigation of the judiciary's handling of the Banco Master case must be made public as soon as possible.

“Greater transparency is necessary, not selective leaks that impact the electoral dispute,” Lula said. “It is urgent to fully break the secrecy of the investigations of all those involved in the Master case, whoever they may be, no matter who it hurts. Brasil needs to know the truth.”

Payday will update as we learn more, but for now, we need your donations to keep tracking this important story.

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Mike Elk is an Emmy-nominated labor reporter. He founded Payday Report using his NLRB settlement from being illegally fired in the union drive at Politico in 2015. Email him at melk@paydayreport.com
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